Filed
Pursuant to Rule 424(b)(3)
Registration
File No. 333-127714
PACIFIC
ETHANOL, INC.
PROSPECTUS
SUPPLEMENT NO. 2 DATED JUNE 23, 2006
TO
FINAL PROSPECTUS DATED APRIL 24, 2006
The
final
prospectus of Pacific Ethanol, Inc. dated April 24, 2006 is supplemented to
include the following updated information:
Risk
Factors
The
Risk
Factors section is amended and restated in its entirety to read as
follows:
RISK
FACTORS
The
following summarizes material risks that you should carefully consider before
you decide to buy our common stock in this offering. Any of the following risks,
if they actually occur, would likely harm our business, financial condition
and
results of operations. As a result, the trading price of our common stock could
decline, and you could lose the money you paid to buy our common
stock.
Risks
Related to our Combined Operations
We
have incurred significant losses in the past and we may incur significant losses
in the future. If we continue to incur losses, we will experience negative
cash
flow, which may hamper our operations, may prevent us from expanding our
business and may cause our stock price to decline.
We
have
incurred losses in the past. As of March 31, 2006, we had an accumulated deficit
of approximately $14.2 million. For the three months ended March 31, 2006,
we
incurred a net loss of approximately $600,000. For the year ended
December 31, 2005, we incurred a net loss of approximately $9.9 million. We
expect to incur losses for the foreseeable future and at least until the
completion of our first ethanol production facility in Madera County. We
estimate that the earliest completion date of this facility and, as a result,
our earliest date of ethanol production, will not occur until the fourth quarter
of 2006. We expect to rely on cash on hand, cash, if any, generated from our
operations and financings to fund all of the cash requirements of our business.
If our net losses continue, we will experience negative cash flow, which may
hamper current operations and may prevent us from expanding our business. We
may
be unable to attain, sustain or increase profitability on a quarterly or annual
basis in the future. If we do not achieve, sustain or increase profitability
our
stock price may decline.
The
high concentration of our sales within the ethanol production and marketing
industry could result in a significant reduction in sales and negatively affect
our profitability if demand for ethanol declines.
Our
revenue is and will continue to be derived primarily from sales of ethanol.
Currently, the predominant oxygenate used to blend with gasoline is ethanol.
Ethanol competes with several other existing products and other alternative
products could also be developed for use as fuel additives. We expect to be
completely focused on the production and marketing of ethanol and its
co-products for the foreseeable future. We may be unable to shift our business
focus away from the production and marketing of ethanol to other renewable
fuels
or competing products. Accordingly, an industry shift away from ethanol or
the
emergence of new competing products may reduce the demand for ethanol. A
downturn in the demand for ethanol would significantly and adversely affect
our
sales and profitability.
If
the expected increase in ethanol demand does not occur, or if the demand for
ethanol decreases, there may be excess capacity in our industry.
Domestic
ethanol production capacity has increased steadily from 1.7 billion gallons
per
year in January of 1999 to 4.8 billion gallons per year at June 2006 according
to the Renewable Fuels Association, or RFA. In addition, there is a significant
amount of capacity being added to our industry. We believe that approximately
2.0 billion gallons per year of production capacity is currently under
construction. This capacity is being added to address anticipated increases
in
demand. Moreover, under the United States Department of Agriculture’s CCC
Bioenergy Program, which is scheduled to expire September 30, 2006, the federal
government makes payments of up to $150.0 million annually to ethanol producers
that increase their production. This could create an additional incentive to
develop excess capacity. However, demand for ethanol may not increase as quickly
as expected, or at all. If the ethanol industry has excess capacity, a fall
in
prices will likely occur which will have an adverse impact on our results of
operations, cash flows and financial condition. Excess capacity may result
from
the increases in capacity coupled with insufficient demand. Demand could be
impaired due to a number of factors, including regulatory developments and
reduced United States gasoline consumption. Reduced gasoline consumption could
occur as a result of increased gasoline or oil prices. For example, price
increases could cause businesses and consumers to reduce driving or acquire
vehicles with more favorable gasoline mileage capabilities.
We
rely heavily on our President and Chief Executive Officer, Neil Koehler. The
loss of his services could adversely affect our ability to source ethanol from
our key suppliers and our ability to sell ethanol to our customers.
Our
success depends, to a significant extent, upon the continued services of Neil
Koehler, who is our President and Chief Executive Officer. For example, Mr.
Koehler has developed key personal relationships with our ethanol suppliers
and
customers. We greatly rely on these relationships in the conduct of our
operations and the execution of our business strategies. The loss of Mr. Koehler
could, therefore, result in the loss of our favorable relationships with one
or
more of our ethanol suppliers and customers. In addition, Mr. Koehler has
considerable experience in the construction, start-up and operation of ethanol
production facilities and in the ethanol marketing business. Although we have
entered into an employment agreement with Mr. Koehler, that agreement is of
limited duration and is subject to early termination by Mr. Koehler under
certain circumstances. In addition, we do not maintain “key person” life
insurance covering Mr. Koehler or any other executive officer. The loss of
Mr.
Koehler could also significantly delay or prevent the achievement of our
business objectives.
Our
independent registered public accounting firm has advised management and our
audit committee that they have identified a material weakness in our internal
controls and we have concluded that we have a material weakness in our
disclosure controls and procedures. Our business and stock price may be
adversely affected if we do not remediate this material weakness or if we have
other material weaknesses in our internal controls.
In
connection with its audit of our consolidated financial statements for the
year
ended December 31, 2005, our independent registered public accounting firm
advised management of the following matter that the accounting firm considered
to be a material weakness: The current organization of our accounting department
does not provide us with the appropriate resources and adequate technical skills
to accurately account for and disclose our activities. Our resources to produce
reliable financial reports and fulfill our other obligations as a public company
are limited due to our small number of employees and the limited public company
experience of our management. The existence of one or more material weaknesses
in our internal controls could result in errors in our financial statements
and
substantial costs and resources may be required to rectify these material
weaknesses. If we are unable to produce reliable financial reports, investors
could lose confidence in our reported financial information, the market price
of
our stock could decline significantly, we may be unable to obtain additional
financing to operate and expand our business, and our business and financial
condition could be harmed.
The
United States ethanol industry is highly dependent upon a myriad of federal
and
state legislation and regulation and any changes in such legislation or
regulation could materially adversely affect our results of operations and
financial condition.
The
elimination or significant reduction in the Federal Excise Tax Credit could
have
a material adverse effect on our results of operations.
The
production of ethanol is made significantly more competitive by federal tax
incentives. The Federal Excise Tax Credit, or FETC, program, which is scheduled
to expire on December 31, 2010, allows gasoline distributors who blend ethanol
with gasoline to receive a federal excise tax rate reduction for each blended
gallon they sell regardless of the blend rate. The current federal excise tax
on
gasoline is $0.184 per gallon, and is paid at the terminal by refiners and
marketers. If the fuel is blended with ethanol, the blender may claim a $0.51
tax credit for each gallon of ethanol used in the mixture. The FETC may not
be
renewed prior to its expiration in 2010, or if renewed, it may be renewed on
terms significantly less favorable than current tax incentives. The elimination
or significant reduction in the FETC could have a material adverse effect on
our
results of operations.
Waivers
of the Renewable Fuels Standard minimum levels of renewable fuels included
in
gasoline could have a material adverse affect on our results of
operations.
Under
the
Energy Policy Act of 2005, the Department of Energy, in consultation with the
Secretary of Agriculture and the Secretary of Energy, may waive the Renewable
Fuels Standard, or RFS, mandate with respect to one or more states if the
Administrator determines that implementing the requirements would severely
harm
the economy or the environment of a state, a region or the United States, or
that there is inadequate supply to meet the requirement. In addition, the
Department of Energy was directed under the Energy Policy Act of 2005 to conduct
a study by January 2006 to determine if the RFS will have a severe adverse
impact on consumers in 2006 on a national, regional or state basis. Based on
the
results of the study, the Secretary of Energy must make a recommendation to
the
EPA as to whether the RFS should be waived for 2006. Any waiver of the RFS
with
respect to one or more states or with respect to 2006 would adversely offset
demand for ethanol and could have a material adverse effect on our results
of
operations and financial condition.
While
the Energy Policy Act of 2005 imposes the RFS, it does not mandate the use
of
ethanol and eliminates the oxygenate requirement for reformulated gasoline
in
the Reformulated Gasoline Program included in the Clean Air
Act.
The
Reformulated Gasoline, or RFG, program’s oxygenate requirements contained in the
Clean Air Act, which, according to the RFA, accounted for approximately 2.0
billion gallons of ethanol use in 2004, was completely eliminated on May 5,
2006
by the Energy Policy Act of 2005. While the RFA expects that ethanol should
account for the largest share of renewable fuels produced and consumed under
the
RFS, the RFS is not limited to ethanol and also includes biodiesel and any
other
liquid fuel produced from biomass or biogas. The elimination of the oxygenate
requirement for reformulated gasoline in the RFG program included in the Clean
Air Act may result in a decline in ethanol consumption in favor of other
alternative fuels, which in turn could have a material adverse effect on our
results of operations and financial condition.
We
may be adversely affected by environmental, health and safety laws, regulations
and liabilities.
We
are
subject to various federal, state and local environmental laws and regulations,
including those relating to the discharge of materials into the air, water
and
ground, the generation, storage, handling, use, transportation and disposal
of
hazardous materials, and the health and safety of our employees. In addition,
some of these laws and regulations require our facilities to operate under
permits that are subject to renewal or modification. These laws, regulations
and
permits can often require expensive pollution control equipment or operational
changes to limit actual or potential impacts to the environment. A violation
of
these laws and regulations or permit conditions can result in substantial fines,
natural resource damages, criminal sanctions, permit revocations and/or facility
shutdowns. In addition, we have made, and expect to make, significant capital
expenditures on an ongoing basis to comply with increasingly stringent
environmental laws, regulations and permits.
We
may be
liable for the investigation and cleanup of environmental contamination at
each
of the properties that we own or operate and at off-site locations where we
arrange for the disposal of hazardous substances. If these substances have
been
or are disposed of or released at sites that undergo investigation and/or
remediation by regulatory agencies, we may be responsible under the
Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act of 1980,
or
CERCLA, or other environmental laws for all or part of the costs of
investigation and/or remediation, and for damages to natural resources. We
may
also be subject to related claims by private parties alleging property damage
and personal injury due to exposure to hazardous or other materials at or from
those properties. Some of these matters may require us to expend significant
amounts for investigation, cleanup or other costs.
In
addition, new laws, new interpretations of existing laws, increased governmental
enforcement of environmental laws or other developments could require us to
make
additional significant expenditures. Continued government and public emphasis
on
environmental issues can be expected to result in increased future investments
for environmental controls at our production facilities. Present and future
environmental laws and regulations (and interpretations thereof) applicable
to
our operations, more vigorous enforcement policies and discovery of currently
unknown conditions may require substantial expenditures that could have a
material adverse effect on our results of operations and financial position.
The
hazards and risks associated with producing and transporting our products (such
as fires, natural disasters, explosions, and abnormal pressures and blowouts)
may also result in personal injury claims or damage to property and third
parties. As protection against operating hazards, we maintain insurance coverage
against some, but not all, potential losses. However, we could sustain losses
for uninsurable or uninsured risks, or in amounts in excess of existing
insurance coverage. Events that result in significant personal injury or damage
to our property or third parties or other losses that are not fully covered
by
insurance could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations
and
financial position.
Our
failure to manage our growth effectively could prevent us from achieving our
goals.
Our
strategy envisions a period of rapid growth that may impose a significant burden
on our administrative and operational resources. The growth of our business,
and
in particular, the completion of construction of our planned ethanol production
facilities, will require significant investments of capital and management’s
close attention. We have also entered into significant marketing agreements
with
Front Range Energy, LLC and Phoenix Bio-Industries, LLC, and we are seeking
to
enter into additional similar agreements with companies that currently, or
expect to, produce ethanol, all of which may result in a substantial growth
in
our marketing business. Our ability to effectively manage our growth will
require us to substantially expand the capabilities of our administrative and
operational resources and to attract, train, manage and retain qualified
management, technicians and other personnel. We may be unable to do so. In
addition, our failure to successfully manage our growth could result in our
sales not increasing commensurately with our capital investments. If we are
unable to successfully manage our growth, we may be unable to achieve our
goals.
The
ethanol production and marketing industry is extremely competitive. Many of
our
significant competitors have greater financial and other resources than we
do
and one or more of these competitors could use their greater resources to gain
market share at our expense. In addition, certain of our suppliers may
circumvent our marketing services, causing our sales and profitability to
decline.
The
ethanol production and marketing industry is extremely competitive. Many of
our
significant competitors in the ethanol production and marketing industry, such
as Archer Daniels Midland Company, or ADM, Cargill, Inc., VeraSun Energy
Corporation, Aventine Renewable Energy, Inc., and Abengoa Bioenergy Corp.,
have
substantially greater production, financial, research and development, personnel
and marketing resources than we do. In addition, we are not currently producing
any ethanol that we sell and therefore are unable to capture the higher gross
profit margins generally associated with production activities. As a result,
our
competitors, who are presently producing ethanol, may have greater relative
advantages resulting from greater capital resources due to higher gross profit
margins. As a result, our competitors may be able to compete more aggressively
and sustain that competition over a longer period of time than we could. Our
lack of resources relative to many of our significant competitors may cause
us
to fail to anticipate or respond adequately to new developments and other
competitive pressures. This failure could reduce our competitiveness and cause
a
decline in our market share, sales and profitability.
In
addition, some of our suppliers are potential competitors and, especially if
the
price of ethanol remains at historically high levels, they may seek to capture
additional profits by circumventing our marketing services in favor of selling
directly to our customers. If one or more of our major suppliers, or numerous
smaller suppliers, circumvent our marketing services, our sales and
profitability will decline.
We
also
face increasing competition from international suppliers. Although there is
a
$0.54 per gallon tariff, which is scheduled to expire in 2007, on
foreign-produced ethanol that is approximately equal to the blenders’ credit,
ethanol imports equivalent to up to 7% of total domestic production in any
given
year from various countries were exempted from this tariff under the Caribbean
Basin Initiative to spur economic development in Central America and the
Caribbean. Currently, international suppliers produce ethanol primarily from
sugar cane and have cost structures that are generally substantially lower
than
ours.
Any
increase in domestic or foreign competition could cause us to reduce our prices
and take other steps to compete effectively, which could adversely affect our
results of operations and financial position.
We
may engage in hedging transactions and other risk mitigation strategies that
could harm our results.
In
an
attempt to partially offset the effects of volatility of ethanol prices and
corn
and natural gas costs, we may enter into contracts to supply a portion of our
ethanol production or purchase a portion of our corn or natural gas requirements
on a forward basis and may also engage in other hedging transactions involving
exchange-traded futures contracts for corn, natural gas and unleaded gasoline
from time to time. The financial statement impact of these activities is
dependent upon, among other things, the prices involved and our ability to
sell
sufficient products to use all of the corn and natural gas for which we have
futures contracts. Hedging arrangements also expose us to the risk of financial
loss in situations where the other party to the hedging contract defaults on
its
contract or, in the case of exchange-traded contracts, where there is a change
in the expected differential between the underlying price in the hedging
agreement and the actual prices paid or received by us. Hedging activities
can
themselves result in losses when a position is purchased in a declining market
or a position is sold in a rising market. A hedge position is often settled
in
the same time frame as the physical commodity is either purchased, as in the
case of corn and natural gas, or sold as in the case of ethanol. Hedging losses
may be offset by a decreased cash price for corn and natural gas and an
increased cash price for ethanol. We also vary the amount of hedging or other
risk mitigation strategies we undertake, and we may choose not to engage in
hedging transactions at all. As a result, our results of operations and
financial position may be adversely affected by increases in the price of corn
or natural gas or decreases in the price of ethanol or unleaded
gasoline.
Risks
Relating to the Business of Kinergy
Kinergy’s
purchase and sale commitments as well as its inventory of ethanol held for
sale
subject us to the risk of fluctuations in the price of ethanol, which may result
in lower or even negative gross profit margins and which could materially and
adversely affect our profitability.
Kinergy’s
purchases and sales of ethanol are not always matched with sales and purchases
of ethanol at prevailing market prices. Kinergy commits from time to time to
the
sale of ethanol to its customers without corresponding and commensurate
commitments for the supply of ethanol from its suppliers, which subjects us
to
the risk of an increase in the price of ethanol. Kinergy also commits from
time
to time to the purchase of ethanol from its suppliers without corresponding
and
commensurate commitments for the purchase of ethanol by its customers, which
subjects us to the risk of a decline in the price of ethanol. In addition,
Kinergy increases inventory levels in anticipation of rising ethanol prices
and
decreases inventory levels in anticipation of declining ethanol prices. As
a
result, Kinergy is subject to the risk of ethanol prices moving in unanticipated
directions, which could result in declining or even negative gross profit
margins. Accordingly, our business is subject to fluctuations in the price
of
ethanol and these fluctuations may result in lower or even negative gross
margins and which could materially and adversely affect our
profitability.
Kinergy
depends on a small number of customers for the vast majority of its sales.
A
reduction in business from any of these customers could cause a significant
decline in our overall sales and profitability.
The
vast
majority of Kinergy’s sales are generated from a small number of customers.
During 2005, sales to Kinergy’s three largest customers, each of whom accounted
for 10% or more of total net sales, represented approximately 18%, 11% and
10%,
respectively, representing an aggregate of approximately 39%, of Kinergy’s total
net sales. During 2004, sales to Kinergy’s four largest customers, each of whom
accounted for 10% or more of total net sales, represented approximately 13%,
12%, 12% and 12%, respectively, representing an aggregate of approximately
49%,
of Kinergy’s total net sales. We expect that Kinergy will continue to depend for
the foreseeable future upon a small number of customers for a significant
portion of its sales. Kinergy’s agreements with these customers generally do not
require them to purchase any specified amount of ethanol or dollar amount of
sales or to make any purchases whatsoever. Therefore, in any future period,
Kinergy’s sales generated from these customers, individually or in the
aggregate, may not equal or exceed historical levels. If sales to any of these
customers cease or decline, Kinergy may be unable to replace these sales with
sales to either existing or new customers in a timely manner, or at all. A
cessation or reduction of sales to one or more of these customers could cause
a
significant decline in our overall sales and profitability.
Kinergy’s
lack of long-term ethanol orders and commitments by its customers could lead
to
a rapid decline in our sales and profitability.
Kinergy
cannot rely on long-term ethanol orders or commitments by its customers for
protection from the negative financial effects of a decline in the demand for
ethanol or a decline in the demand for Kinergy’s services. The limited certainty
of ethanol orders can make it difficult for us to forecast our sales and
allocate our resources in a manner consistent with our actual sales. Moreover,
our expense levels are based in part on our expectations of future sales and,
if
our expectations regarding future sales are inaccurate, we may be unable to
reduce costs in a timely manner to adjust for sales shortfalls. Furthermore,
because Kinergy depends on a small number of customers for a significant portion
of its sales, the magnitude of the ramifications of these risks is greater
than
if Kinergy’s sales were less concentrated within a small number of customers. As
a result of Kinergy’s lack of long-term ethanol orders and commitments, we may
experience a rapid decline in our sales and profitability.
Kinergy
depends on a small number of suppliers for the vast majority of the ethanol
that
it sells. If any of these suppliers is unable or decides not to continue to
supply Kinergy with ethanol in adequate amounts, Kinergy may be unable to
satisfy the demands of its customers and our sales, profitability
and relationships with our customers will be adversely
affected.
Kinergy
depends on a small number of suppliers for the vast majority of the ethanol
that
it sells. During 2005, Kinergy’s three largest suppliers, each of whom accounted
for 10% or more of total purchases, represented approximately 22%, 20%, and
17%,
respectively, of purchases, representing an aggregate of approximately 59%,
of
the total ethanol Kinergy purchased for resale. During 2004, Kinergy’s three
largest suppliers, each of whom accounted for 10% or more of the total
purchases, represented approximately 27%, 23% and 14%, respectively, of
purchases, representing an aggregate of approximately 64% of the total ethanol
Kinergy purchased for resale. We expect that Kinergy will continue to depend
for
the foreseeable future upon a small number of suppliers for a significant
majority of the ethanol that it purchases. In addition, Kinergy sources the
ethanol that it sells primarily from suppliers in the Midwestern United States.
The delivery of the ethanol that Kinergy sells is therefore subject to delays
resulting from inclement weather and other conditions. Also, there is currently
a substantial demand for ethanol which has, for most of 2005, far exceeded
ethanol production capacities and Kinergy’s management has, from time to time,
found it very difficult to satisfy all the demands for ethanol by Kinergy’s
customers. If any of these suppliers is unable or declines for any reason to
continue to supply Kinergy with ethanol in adequate amounts, Kinergy may be
unable to replace that supplier and source other supplies of ethanol in a timely
manner, or at all, to satisfy the demands of its customers. If this occurs,
our
sales and profitability and Kinergy’s relationships with its customers will be
adversely affected.
Risks
Relating to the Business of PEI California
We
may not be able to implement our planned expansion
strategy.
We
plan
to grow our business by investing in new facilities and/or acquiring existing
facilities and to pursue other business opportunities such as the production
of
other renewable fuels to the extent we deem those opportunities advisable.
We
believe that there is increasing competition for suitable sites. We may not
find
suitable additional sites for construction of new facilities, suitable
acquisition candidates or other suitable expansion opportunities.
We
may
need additional financing to implement our expansion strategy and we may not
have access to the funding required for the expansion of our business or such
funding may not be available to us on acceptable terms. We may finance the
expansion of our business with additional indebtedness or by issuing additional
equity securities. We could face financial risks associated with incurring
additional indebtedness, such as reducing our liquidity and access to financial
markets and increasing the amount of cash flow required to service such
indebtedness, or associated with issuing additional stock, such as dilution
of
ownership and earnings.
We
must
also obtain numerous regulatory approvals and permits in order to construct
and
operate additional or expanded facilities. These requirements may not be
satisfied in a timely manner or at all. Federal and state governmental
requirements may substantially increase our costs, which could have a material
adverse effect on our results of operations and financial position. Our
expansion plans may also result in other unanticipated adverse consequences,
such as the diversion of management’s attention from our existing operations.
Our
construction costs may also increase to levels that would make a new facility
too expensive to complete or unprofitable to operate. Except with respect to
our
Madera County facility, we have not entered into any construction contracts
or
other arrangements, other than site acquisition arrangements, that might limit
our exposure to higher costs in developing and completing any new facilities.
Contractors, engineering firms, construction firms and equipment suppliers
also
receive requests and orders from other ethanol companies and, therefore, we
may
not be able to secure their services or products on a timely basis or on
acceptable financial terms. We may suffer significant delays or cost overruns
as
a result of a variety of factors, such as shortages of workers or materials,
transportation constraints, adverse weather, unforeseen difficulties or labor
issues, any of which could prevent us from commencing operations as expected
at
our facilities.
We
may
not find additional appropriate sites for new facilities and we may not be
able
to finance, construct, develop or operate these new facilities successfully.
We
also may be unable to find suitable acquisition candidates. Accordingly, we
may
not be able to implement our planned expansion strategy.
PEI
California has not conducted any significant business operations and has been
unprofitable to date.
PEI California may be unsuccessful and decrease our overall profitability,
causing us to fail to achieve one of our significant
goals.
PEI
California has not conducted any significant business operations and has been
unprofitable to date. Accordingly, there is no prior operating history by which
to evaluate the likelihood of PEI California’s success or its contribution to
our overall profitability. PEI California may not complete construction of
all
of our planned ethanol production facilities, and even if PEI California does
complete the construction of all of our planned ethanol production facilities,
PEI California may not be successful or contribute positively to our
profitability. If PEI California is unsuccessful, it will decrease our overall
profitability and we will have failed to achieve one of our significant goals.
The
raw materials and energy necessary to produce ethanol may be unavailable or
may
increase in price, adversely affecting our sales and profitability.
The
principal raw material we use to produce ethanol and ethanol by-products is
corn. As a result, changes in the price of corn can significantly affect our
business. In general, rising corn prices produce lower profit margins and,
therefore, represent unfavorable market conditions. This is especially true
since market conditions generally do not allow us to pass along increased corn
costs to our customers because the price of ethanol is primarily determined
by
other factors, such as the price of oil and gasoline. At certain levels, corn
prices may make ethanol uneconomical to use in markets where the use of fuel
oxygenates is not mandated.
The
price
of corn is influenced by general economic, market and regulatory factors. These
factors include weather conditions, farmer planting decisions, government
policies and subsidies with respect to agriculture and international trade
and
global demand and supply. The significance and relative impact of these factors
on the price of corn is difficult to predict. Any event that tends to negatively
impact the supply of corn will tend to increase prices and potentially harm
our
business. Corn bought by ethanol plants represented approximately 13% of the
2005 total corn supply according to 2005 results reported by the National Corn
Growers Association. The increasing ethanol capacity could boost demand for
corn
and result in increased prices for corn.
The
production of ethanol also requires a significant amount of other raw materials
and energy, primarily water, electricity and natural gas. For example, we
estimate that our Madera County ethanol production facility will require
significant and uninterrupted supplies of water, electricity and natural gas.
The prices of electricity and natural gas have fluctuated significantly in
the
past and may fluctuate significantly in the future. Local water, electricity
and
gas utilities may not be able to reliably supply the water, electricity and
natural gas that our facilities will need or may not be able to supply such
resources on acceptable terms. In addition, if there is an interruption in
the
supply of water or energy for any reason, we may be required to halt ethanol
production.
The
market price of ethanol is volatile and subject to significant fluctuations,
which may cause our profitability
to fluctuate significantly.
The
market price of ethanol is dependent upon many factors, including the price
of
gasoline, which is in turn dependent upon the price of petroleum. Petroleum
prices are highly volatile and difficult to forecast due to frequent changes
in
global politics and the world economy. The distribution of petroleum throughout
the world is affected by incidents in unstable political environments, such
as
Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the former U.S.S.R. and other countries and
regions. The industrialized world depends critically upon oil from these areas,
and any disruption or other reduction in oil supply can cause significant
fluctuations in the prices of oil and gasoline. We cannot predict the future
price of oil or gasoline and may establish unprofitable prices for the sale
of
ethanol due to significant fluctuations in market prices. For example, the
price
of ethanol declined by approximately 25% from its 2004 average price per gallon
in five months from January 2005 through May 2005 and reversed this decline
and
increased to approximately 55% above its 2004 average price per gallon in four
months from June 2005 through September 2005; and from September through
December 2005, the price of ethanol trended downward, but reversed its trend
in
the first quarter of 2006 by rising approximately 16% above its 2005 average
price per gallon. In recent years, the prices of gasoline, petroleum and ethanol
have all reached historically unprecedented high levels. If the prices of
gasoline and petroleum decline, we believe that the demand for and price of
ethanol may be adversely affected. Fluctuations in the market price of ethanol
may cause our profitability to fluctuate significantly.
We
believe that the production of ethanol is expanding rapidly. There are a number
of new plants under construction and planned for construction, both inside
and
outside California. We expect existing ethanol plants to expand by increasing
production capacity and actual production. Increases in the demand for ethanol
may not be commensurate with increasing supplies of ethanol. Thus, increased
production of ethanol may lead to lower ethanol prices. The increased production
of ethanol could also have other adverse effects. For example, increased ethanol
production could lead to increased supplies of co-products from the production
of ethanol, such as wet distillers grain, or WDG. Those increased supplies
could
lead to lower prices for those co-products. Also, the increased production
of
ethanol could result in increased demand for corn. This could result in higher
prices for corn and cause higher ethanol production costs and, in the event
that
PEI California is unable to pass increases in the price of corn to its
customers, will result in lower profits. We cannot predict the future price
of
ethanol, WDG or corn. Any material decline in the price of ethanol or WDG,
or
any material increase in the price of corn, will adversely affect our sales
and
profitability.
Certain
countries can export ethanol to the United States duty-free, which may undermine
the ethanol production industry in the United States.
Imported
ethanol is generally subject to a $0.54 per gallon tariff and a 2.5% ad valorem
tax that was designed to offset the $0.51 per gallon ethanol subsidy available
under the federal excise tax incentive program for refineries that blend ethanol
in their fuel. There is a special exemption from the tariff for ethanol imported
from 24 countries in Central America and the Caribbean islands which is limited
to a total of 7.0% of United States production per year (with additional
exemptions for ethanol produced from feedstock in the Caribbean region over
the
7.0% limit). In May 2006, bills were introduced in both the U.S. House of
Representatives and U.S. Senate to repeal the $0.54 per gallon tariff. We do
not
know the extent to which the volume of imports would increase or the effect
on
United States prices for ethanol if this proposed legislation is enacted or
if
the tariff is not renewed beyond its current expiration in December 2007. In
addition The North America Free Trade Agreement countries, Canada and Mexico,
are exempt from duty. Imports from the exempted countries have increased in
recent years and are expected to increase further as a result of new plants
under development. In particular, the ethanol industry has expressed concern
with respect to a new plant under development by Cargill, Inc., the fifth
largest ethanol producer in the United States, in El Salvador that would take
the water out of Brazilian ethanol and then ship the dehydrated ethanol from
El
Salvador to the United States duty-free. Since production costs for ethanol
in
Brazil are estimated to be significantly less than what they are in the United
States, the import of the Brazilian ethanol duty-free through El Salvador or
another country exempted from the tariff may negatively impact the demand for
domestic ethanol and the price at which we sell our ethanol.
Risks
Related to our Common Stock
Our
common stock has a small public float and shares of our common stock eligible
for public sale could cause the market price of our stock to drop, even if
our
business is doing well, and make it difficult for us to raise additional capital
through sales of equity securities.
As
of
June 21, 2006, we had outstanding approximately 37.2 million shares of our
common stock. Approximately 14.8 million of these shares were restricted
under the Securities Act of 1933, including approximately 5.9 million shares
beneficially owned, in the aggregate, by our executive officers, directors
and
10% stockholders. Accordingly, our common stock has a public float of
approximately 22.4 million shares held by a relatively small number of
public investors.
We
are in
the process of registering for resale approximately 8.2 million shares of our
common stock, including shares of our common stock underlying warrants. If
and
when the registration statement covering these shares of common stock is
declared effective, holders of these shares will be permitted, subject to few
limitations, to freely sell these shares of common stock. As a result of our
small public float, sales of substantial amounts of common stock, including
shares issued upon the exercise of stock options or warrants, or an anticipation
that such sales could occur, may materially and adversely affect prevailing
market prices for our common stock. Any adverse effect on the market price
of
our common stock could make it difficult for us to raise additional capital
through sales of equity securities at a time and at a price that we deem
appropriate.
As
a result of our issuance of shares of Series A Preferred Stock to Cascade
Investment, L.L.C., our
common stockholders may experience numerous negative effects and most of the
rights of our common stockholders will be subordinate to the rights of Cascade
Investment, L.L.C.
As
a
result of our issuance of shares of Series A Preferred Stock to Cascade
Investment, L.L.C., or Cascade, common stockholders may experience numerous
negative effects, including substantial dilution. The 5,250,000 shares of Series
A Preferred Stock issued to Cascade are immediately convertible into 10,500,000
shares of our common stock, which amount, when issued, would, based upon the
number of shares of our common stock outstanding as of June 21, 2006, represent
approximately 22% of our shares outstanding and, in the event that we are
profitable, would likewise result in a decrease in our earnings per share by
approximately 22%, without taking into account cash or stock payable as
dividends on the Series A Preferred Stock. In addition, income available to
common stockholders will be reduced during the second quarter of 2006 to the
extent that the market price of our common stock is in excess of the $8.00
per
share purchase price, on an as-converted basis, at which we issued the Series
A
Preferred Stock. This reduction will be calculated based on the number of shares
of common stock deemed issued, on an as-converted basis, multiplied by the
difference in the market price of our common stock and the $8.00 per share
purchase price.
Other
negative effects to our common stockholders will include potential additional
dilution from dividends paid in Series A Preferred Stock and certain
antidilution adjustments. In addition, rights in favor of holders of our Series
A Preferred Stock include: seniority in liquidation and dividend preferences;
substantial voting rights; numerous protective provisions; the right to appoint
two persons to our board of directors and periodically nominate two persons
for
election by our stockholders to our board of directors; preemptive rights;
and
redemption rights. Also, the Series A Preferred Stock could have the effect
of
delaying, deferring and discouraging another party from acquiring control of
Pacific Ethanol. In addition, based on our current number of shares of common
stock outstanding, Cascade has approximately 22% of all outstanding voting
power
as compared to approximately 12% of all outstanding voting power held in
aggregate by our current executive officers and directors. Any of the above
factors may materially and adversely affect our common stockholders and the
values of their investments in our common stock.
Our
stock price is highly volatile, which could result in substantial losses for
investors purchasing shares of our common stock and in litigation against
us.
The
market price of our common stock has fluctuated significantly in the past and
may continue to fluctuate significantly in the future. The market price of
our
common stock may continue to fluctuate in response to one or more of the
following factors, many of which are beyond our control:
·
|
changing
conditions in the ethanol and fuel markets;
|
·
|
the
volume and timing of the receipt of orders for ethanol from major
customers;
|
·
|
competitive
pricing pressures;
|
·
|
our
ability to produce, sell and deliver ethanol on a cost-effective
and
timely basis;
|
·
|
the
introduction and announcement of one or more new alternatives to
ethanol
by our competitors;
|
·
|
changes
in market valuations of similar companies;
|
·
|
stock
market price and volume fluctuations generally;
|
·
|
regulatory
developments or increased enforcement;
|
·
|
fluctuations
in our quarterly or annual operating results;
|
·
|
additions
or departures of key personnel;
|
·
|
our
inability to obtain construction, acquisition, capital equipment
and/or
working capital financing; and
|
·
|
future
sales of our common stock or other
securities.
|
Furthermore,
we believe that the economic conditions in California and other states, as
well
as the United States as a whole, could have a negative impact on our results
of
operations. Demand for ethanol could also be adversely affected by a slow-down
in overall demand for oxygenate and gasoline additive products. The levels
of
our ethanol production and purchases for resale will be based upon forecasted
demand. Accordingly, any inaccuracy in forecasting anticipated revenues and
expenses could adversely affect our business. Furthermore, we recognize revenues
from ethanol sales at the time of delivery. The failure to receive anticipated
orders or to complete delivery in any quarterly period could adversely affect
our results of operations for that period. Quarterly results are not necessarily
indicative of future performance for any particular period, and we may not
experience revenue growth or profitability on a quarterly or an annual
basis.
The
price
at which you purchase shares of our common stock may not be indicative of the
price that will prevail in the trading market. You may be unable to sell your
shares of common stock at or above your purchase price, which may result in
substantial losses to you and which may include the complete loss of your
investment. In the past, securities class action litigation has often been
brought against a company following periods of stock price volatility. We may
be
the target of similar litigation in the future. Securities litigation could
result in substantial costs and divert management’s attention and our resources
away from our business. Any of the risks described above could adversely affect
our sales and profitability and also the price of our common stock.
(End
of
Prospectus Supplement No. 2.)
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